Canada’s Quebec Separatists Lead Polls, A Fresh Headache For Carney And Trump Win

Quebec’s separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) is leading the race ahead of the October 5 provincial election, raising the prospect of a new political challenge for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as the party has pledged to hold a referendum on independence if it forms the government.

A Pallas Data poll conducted on September 25-26 put the PQ at 30 per cent, followed by the Quebec Liberal Party at 23 per cent, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 18 per cent, the Conservative Party of Quebec at 17 per cent and Québec solidaire at 10 per cent. 338Canada's latest projection also put the PQ ahead in the race.

The Quebec Liberal Party is separate from Carney’s federal Liberal Party, meaning the provincial election is not a direct contest involving the prime minister’s party. However, a PQ government could have significant implications for Ottawa because of its commitment to Quebec sovereignty.

PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has repeatedly said that his party intends to hold a referendum on Quebec independence during its first term if elected. However, he has ruled out holding the vote while US President Donald Trump remains in office, meaning a referendum would take place no earlier than 2029, after Trump’s current term ends.

Plamondon has argued that the debate over Quebec’s future should not be influenced by US politics. He has said he does not want the independence question to be “hijacked” by developments in American politics or by Trump.

The PQ’s position has drawn attention outside Quebec, particularly as Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the 51st US state. Separatist movements in Canada have also gained greater attention amid Trump’s pressure on Ottawa.

However, the PQ’s lead does not necessarily mean that most Quebecers support independence. An AFP report citing recent polling said support for leaving Canada stands at around 30 per cent. Quebec political expert Valerie Gaudreau told AFP that the PQ’s rise is being driven more by dissatisfaction with the provincial government and cost-of-living concerns than by separatist sentiment.

“The desire for change is stronger than the desire for independence,” Gaudreau told AFP.

Quebec is a predominantly French-speaking province and has a decades-old separatist movement. The province held independence referendums in 1980 and 1995, with voters rejecting separation from Canada on both occasions. The 1995 referendum was decided by an extremely narrow margin.

The Quebec election is also taking place against the backdrop of renewed separatist sentiment elsewhere in Canada. Alberta is due to hold a province-wide referendum on October 19, with one question asking whether the provincial government should begin the legal process required to hold a binding referendum on separation. The result of that question would be non-binding.