Earth Heating Faster: UN Warns 2026 Among 4 Hottest Years, El Niño Threatens 2027

The world is entering a new era of climate extremes, with 2026 expected to rank among the four hottest years on record as rising greenhouse gas emissions and an exceptionally strong El Niño threaten to push temperatures even higher in 2027, the United Nations warned on Monday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its State of the Climate Update 2026 as the COP31 climate summit entered its second day in Antalya, Türkiye. Global temperatures between January and September averaged 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with the past four years emerging as the warmest in the 177-year observational record.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the strengthening El Niño, which could reach exceptional intensity by December, would release additional heat stored in the Pacific Ocean and intensify extreme weather well into 2027. Its temperature impact is typically greatest in the year following its development.

The report found that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose 53 per cent to 426.8 parts per million in 2025, compared with pre-industrial levels, while methane increased 167 per cent to 1,948 parts per billion. The Earth's energy imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began, as oceans absorb approximately 90 per cent of excess heat.

Ocean temperatures are on course to break records for the tenth consecutive year, while global sea levels have reached their highest point since satellite monitoring began in 1993. Glacier retreat and declining freshwater reserves are adding to the crisis. Ice lost in 2025 was equivalent to filling five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second.

Speaking at COP31, Saulo warned that El Niño could increase heat-related illnesses, dengue and malaria outbreaks, wildfire risks and air pollution. The catastrophic Himalayan glacier collapse and subsequent flash floods in Nepal, which killed more than 1,300 people, have also highlighted the dangers facing mountain communities.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world had entered a new age of climate extremes, urging governments to cut emissions faster, accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and provide financial assistance to vulnerable countries.