Germany’s Right-Wing AfD Scores Record Win In State Election, Deals Major Blow To Chancellor Merz

Germany’s right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has scored a historic victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, winning 43.8 per cent of the vote and securing 39 seats in the 83-member Landtag. The result marks the strongest performance by a far-right party in a German state election since 1949 and delivers a major blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU.

The AfD, which nearly doubled its 2021 vote share of 20.8 per cent, swept 38 of Saxony-Anhalt’s 41 direct constituencies. Meanwhile, the CDU collapsed to around 17.2 per cent, compared with 37.1 per cent in 2021. The SPD won 9.2 per cent, while the Greens and Left Party secured 8.9 per cent and 8.6 per cent respectively. BSW narrowly crossed the five per cent threshold, while the FDP fell to 2.5 per cent and lost its representation. Voter turnout surged to a record 77.8 per cent, up from 60.3 per cent in 2021.

The victory was led by 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, whose polished digital presence and aggressive campaigning turned the election into a referendum on the federal government in Berlin. His campaign focused on immigration, rising costs, healthcare shortages, rural infrastructure and dissatisfaction with established parties.

Siegmund has also been a controversial figure. He was removed from his state parliamentary committee chairmanship after his participation in a 2023 Potsdam meeting where far-right figures discussed “remigration”, referring to the expulsion of immigrants and asylum seekers. The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt branch was classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation, although that designation is currently on hold following a court order.

The election has now put Germany’s Brandmauer, or political firewall, against the AfD under unprecedented pressure. Although the party emerged as the largest force, its 39 seats leave it three short of the 42 required for an absolute majority. Mainstream parties have continued to reject formal cooperation with the AfD, creating a difficult government-formation puzzle.

The result also represents a serious setback for Merz. An ARD poll before the election found that 83 per cent of eligible voters were dissatisfied with his federal government. AfD leaders have openly used Merz’s unpopularity to strengthen their campaign, while conservative politicians in eastern Germany are increasingly questioning whether the firewall remains sustainable.

The implications extend beyond Saxony-Anhalt. Elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled for September 20, making the AfD’s momentum a major concern for Germany’s governing parties. Across Europe, the result has also raised fears about EU unity, NATO policy and Germany’s position on Ukraine. The AfD advocates ending military aid to Ukraine, lifting sanctions on Russia and reassessing Germany’s NATOcommitments.

For Germany, the central question is now whether the established parties can form a stable government without cooperating with the AfD. If they fail, political instability or fresh elections could further strengthen the party that has just delivered one of the biggest electoral shocks in post-war German politics.