Gold and silver set to shine in 2026, copper to consolidate, says Goldman Sachs

Gold is expected to remain the star performer among commodities in 2026, driven by strong central bank demand and rising geopolitical risks , according to the latest Goldman Sachs commodities outlook.

The report highlights that central banks are likely to continue buying gold at an average of 70 tonnes per month , nearly four times the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tonnes. This surge in official demand, alongside lingering geopolitical tensions following events like the freezing of Russia's reserves in 2022 , is expected to contribute significantly to price gains. Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold could reach USD 4,900 per ounce by December 2026 .

Private investment could further support gold prices. With gold ETFs currently representing just 0.17% of US private financial portfolios , the report notes that even minor shifts in allocation could boost gold prices, estimating that a 1 basis point increase in gold’s share of US financial portfolios could push prices up by 1.4% .

Silver , although less highlighted than gold, is expected to benefit from the broader strength in precious metals, especially amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Precious metals delivered strong returns in 2025, setting a favorable backdrop for continued investor interest. Goldman Sachs describes gold as its “ single favourite long commodity ,” signaling support for the wider precious metals market, including silver.

In contrast, the base metals sector shows more tempered expectations. Copper , which rallied from USD 10,600 in November to USD 11,700 amid tariff-related optimism, is expected to consolidate in 2026 , averaging USD 11,400 per tonne if tariff uncertainties persist. Nonetheless, the long-term outlook for copper remains positive. Goldman Sachs points to rising demand from electrification, which drives nearly half of global copper consumption, and its critical role in AI, power grids, and defence, suggesting a strong price floor even amid slower growth.

Lead and other industrial metals face a more subdued outlook. While specific price forecasts are not provided, Goldman Sachs notes that supply growth, particularly from Chinese overseas investments securing metals vital for AI and geopolitical priorities, could weigh on metals with weaker demand momentum.

Overall, while commodity index returns may moderate in 2026, structural forces such as geopolitics, energy transition, and supply concentration are expected to continue shaping the market. In this environment, gold is set to remain in focus, silver could benefit, and copper is likely to see steady long-term support, even as other base metals face mixed prospects.