IMD Warns India May Receive Less Than 94% Of Average July Rainfall After Driest June

India is likely to receive below normal rainfall in July , the wettest month of the southwest monsoon season, with the India Meteorological Department projecting precipitation at less than 94 percent of the Long Period Average , or LPA , of 280.4 mm . The outlook comes after the country recorded its driest June in twelve years , deepening concerns over crop sowing and water availability.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the weak forecast stems largely from the emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which have suppressed moisture bearing weather systems over India. June rainfall stood at just 99.5 mm , nearly 40 percent below normal , marking the fifth driest June since records began in 1901 . Central India recorded a 50.4 percent deficit , while east and northeast India logged their lowest ever June rainfall on record at 197.5 mm .

According to the IMD, the shortfall was driven by an unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation , the complete absence of low pressure systems during June, and above normal typhoon activity over the western Pacific, which limited system formation over the Indian Ocean. Mohapatra noted that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could partly offset El Nino's impact later in the season, though this would likely only materialise around August or September .

Some relief is expected regionally, with normal to above normal rainfall forecast for parts of northwest India , northeast India , east central India and the eastern peninsular region . The IMD has also forecast above normal temperatures nationwide through July, raising the risk of heat stress alongside the rainfall deficit.

The timing is critical since July is the primary sowing month for kharif crops including rice , soybeans , cotton and pulses . The area under monsoon sown crops had already fallen to 18.27 million hectares as of June 25, down nearly 23 percent from a year earlier. The Union Agriculture Ministry has identified 315 vulnerable districts , including 111 high priority areas with limited irrigation, spanning 12 states such as Maharashtra , Gujarat , Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh , for which contingency plans are being prepared.

The Finance Ministry has flagged the rainfall deficit as a broader economic concern, warning that water security must be prioritised in coming years. The IMD has urged farmers to adopt water conservation measures and shift toward less water intensive crops as the monsoon's crucial second half unfolds.