IMD Warns Weak Monsoon Till July 2, Govt Identifies 111 Vulnerable Districts For Kharif Crop Risk

The southwest monsoon is likely to remain weak until July 2, with rainfall currently about 43 per cent below normal, raising serious concerns over kharif sowing and agricultural output, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said after a high-level review meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday.

Chouhan said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that weak monsoon conditions will persist in the short term, potentially impacting kharif crops in rainfed regions. He added that the government remains fully prepared and urged farmers not to panic.

As of June 22, kharif sowing had covered less than 10 per cent of the total area, slightly lower than the 11.99 million hectares recorded in the same period last year. Soyabean remains the most affected crop in early sowing progress, while other crops are largely on track.

The Centre, in coordination with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) , has mapped 315 districts across 12 states as vulnerable to rainfall deficiency. Of these, 111 districts with irrigation coverage below 25 per cent have been classified as most vulnerable, 76 as medium, and 128 as relatively better irrigated.

Recent IMD-linked and media reports confirm that El Niño conditions are contributing to monsoon instability , with rainfall for the 2026 season projected at around 90 per cent of the long-period average, placing it in the below-normal category. The monsoon, which accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall, has also shown uneven progress, though recent updates indicate a partial revival after a two-week stall, with rains advancing into Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Odisha.

In addition, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are among the 12 states included in the vulnerability mapping. While the government has not released an official district-wise list of all 111 high-risk districts, agriculture and climate risk assessments indicate that rainfed and drought-prone belts in Telangana, including Mahabubnagar, Nalgonda and Adilabad, and in Andhra Pradesh, including Anantapur, Kurnool, Kadapa and Prakasam, fall within the broader high-risk irrigation-deficit category , given their heavy dependence on monsoon rainfall.

The Centre has activated contingency planning under ICAR-CRIDA frameworks, directing states to promote crop diversification towards pulses, oilseeds and millets, along with short-duration and climate-resilient varieties. Authorities have also been asked to strengthen irrigation assets, including ponds, check dams and farm reservoirs under rural employment and development programmes.

Additional measures include expanded coverage under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) and Kisan Credit Card (KCC) schemes, along with real-time monitoring through an El Niño Monitoring Cell and Crop Weather Watch Group. Officials said foodgrain buffer stocks remain adequate, reducing immediate food security risks despite rainfall stress.

Chouhan reiterated that the government’s approach is preventive and science-driven, combining meteorological forecasting, district-level monitoring and agricultural advisories to minimise crop losses and stabilise rural livelihoods.