India’s Monsoon Ends 13% Below Normal, Fourth-Lowest Rainfall Since 2001

India received 13 per cent less rainfall than normal during the June-September monsoon season, recording its fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The country received 759.4 mm of rain during the four-month season, against the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm, with overall rainfall reaching only 87.4 per cent of the LPA.

The IMD attributed much of the shortfall to El Nino conditions that emerged over the tropical Pacific in June and strengthened through the monsoon season. The weather department said strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing and could continue until March 2027.

The rainfall deficit was particularly sharp at the beginning of the season. June recorded 35.4 per cent below-normal rainfall, while August saw a 16.3 per cent deficit and September a 7.6 per cent shortfall. July was the only month to buck the trend, recording one per cent excess rainfall.

The season could have ended with an even larger deficit but for several low-pressure systems that brought additional rain across different parts of the country. IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said 14 low-pressure systems developed this season, producing 77 low-pressure-system days compared with the normal 57.

The season also saw the IMD revise its rainfall outlook downward. On April 13, it had forecast monsoon rainfall at 92 per cent of LPA, before lowering the estimate to 90 per cent in its May 29 forecast.

Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing from northern and central parts of the country. It has already retreated from most of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, the whole of Delhi and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat. The IMD expects withdrawal to continue across central and northwest India in the first week of October and from several eastern, northeastern and northern peninsular areas in the second week.

Looking ahead, the IMD expects October rainfall to be below normal at about 85 per cent of LPA. The normal October rainfall is around 75.4 mm, based on data from 1971-2020.