Iran deal in 24 hours says Pakistan, not today says Tehran, as Trump waits

Iran's peace soap opera dropped a finale-worthy episode, and somehow it still ended on a cliffhanger, with Pakistan promising a signing, Tehran promising nothing, and Trump caught somewhere in between, waiting.

Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif upgraded his Friday claim of a final agreed text to something far bolder, saying the deal is now likely to be finalized within 24 hours , with Pakistan preparing for an electronic signing followed by technical talks next week . The agreement even has a name now, the Islamabad agreement , brokered jointly by Qatar and Pakistan, quite the geopolitical glow up for two countries that aren't even signatories to whatever this document actually says.

Tehran, however, was quick to puncture that timeline. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Saturday that the Islamabad memorandum will not be signed on Sunday , though he added the possibility of a signing in the coming days couldn't be ruled out. He also noted caution was needed on any date given the hesitation of the other side , a polite diplomatic way of saying don't hold your breath.

The substance, as far as anyone can pin it down, includes a 60 day extension of the ceasefire that had effectively collapsed this week as both sides resumed strikes. It also folds in Lebanon, where Israel has renewed its offensive against Hezbollah, a detail Netanyahu's government is unlikely to applaud given Israel insists it's not a party to any of this. Some nuclear steps would kick in immediately upon signing , with the rest punted to further negotiation, and a senior US official framed the pending deal as leading to Washington eventually taking custody of Iran's enriched uranium.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi sounded almost giddy earlier, telling state TV the announcement could come within one or two days, saying the two sides are closer than ever. Trump told reporters it was his understanding that Khamenei had already signed off , with the final sign-off from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei described by sources as the last missing piece. Translation, everyone is reportedly one signature away from history, which is also exactly what everyone was saying a week ago.

Then there's the frozen assets subplot, which got messier rather than clearer. Major General Mohsen Rezaei , military adviser to Khamenei and a former IRGC commander, claimed via Iranian state media that Trump has agreed to release the 24 billion dollars but is simply unwilling to announce it publicly. Vance fired back hard , branding this fake information and insisting Iranians are getting no cash for showing up to sign anything.

Meanwhile, the drones did not get the ceasefire memo, twice over. US Central Command posted that Iran launched multiple one way attack drones early Saturday targeting commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz , and that US forces downed all of them , with traffic flowing unimpeded . Separately, Trump accused Iran of attacking Indian flagged ships leaving the strait , calling it totally unacceptable, after three vessels with Indian crew came under attack off Oman's coast this week. Tehran dismissed the claim as baseless .

Trump is reportedly set to discuss Strait of Hormuz demining efforts at the G7 , a sign Washington is quietly betting on the deal landing even while publicly hedging.

Lebanon, predictably, did not pause for any of this. Israeli strikes hit the south on Saturday, including the villages of Rihan and Sujud near Nabatieh, after the Israeli army issued evacuation warnings for 20 locations ahead of planned raids. The Lebanese army reportedly began withdrawing from positions near Nabatieh as the IDF advanced, while Netanyahu appears genuinely unsure how to react to Trump's 60 day framework , with domestic election timing complicating how Israel can spin any outcome as a win.

And tying it all together is the detail still hovering in the background of every Khamenei reference, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's funeral is now scheduled to begin July 4 , with burial on July 9 , even as his successor Mojtaba is the one being asked to bless a deal named after a city in Pakistan.