Mark Carney Warns US Is Trying to Break Canada Ahead of Alberta Vote

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that the United States is attempting to weaken Canada to gain greater control over the country, urging voters in oil-rich Alberta to reject the initiation of a process that could eventually lead to independence. The warning comes ahead of a crucial provincial vote on October 19, amid escalating trade tensions with Washington and renewed questions about the future of Canadian unity.

Speaking at a pro-Canada rally in Calgary on Thursday, Carney cautioned that external pressures and President Donald Trump’s trade war could threaten Canadian sovereignty. Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the 51st US state. Carney argued that Canada must strengthen its economic resilience and reduce dependence on its southern neighbour.

The referendum is not a direct vote on independence. Voters will decide whether Alberta should remain a Canadian province or begin the legal process for a future binding separation referendum. A favourable vote would not immediately change the province's constitutional status.

Alberta's separatist movement reflects decades of tensions over federal authority, oil revenues and energy regulation. The 1980 National Energy Program, introduced by then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau, triggered strong opposition in Alberta over federal control of petroleum pricing, taxation and ownership. Although subsequently dismantled, the dispute fuelled western alienation and resentment towards Ottawa.

More recently, disagreements over pipelines, carbon emissions and environmental regulations, particularly under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, intensified complaints that federal policies constrained Alberta's energy industry. The movement gained momentum following the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, acknowledged the province's grievances while promoting a proposed Pacific Link pipeline, which he says could create more than 140,000 jobs, generate revenue for social programmes and diversify exports. However, separatist campaigners Tanya Clemens and Keith Wilson argue that federal assurances have not resolved longstanding concerns.

Premier Danielle Smith, who supports remaining in Canada, has acknowledged continued separatist sentiment. Pre-vote polling cited by Reuters indicated that approximately 70% of Albertans favoured remaining in Canada, while around a quarter supported independence.

Any eventual separation would require constitutional negotiations under Canada's legal framework, including consideration of Indigenous treaty rights. The referendum therefore represents a test of Carney's leadership, Alberta's demands for autonomy and Canada's ability to maintain unity amid US trade tensions. Even if separation does not advance, disputes over energy policy and federal-provincial relations are likely to persist.