Nandigram, Rejinagar Bypolls: BJP Has The Organisation, But Can Mamata’s Backing Change The Equation?

Campaigning for the Nandigram and Rejinagar Assembly bypolls concluded on Sunday, setting the stage for voting on October 6 and counting on October 9. The two contests have emerged as important tests of the BJP's organisation, the fractured Trinamool Congress and the opposition's ability to consolidate votes.

In Nandigram, the BJP is defending the position built by Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, who won the seat by 9,665 votes in the 2026 Assembly election before retaining Bhabanipur. The BJP has fielded Hasirani Rath, mother of Adhikari's close aide Chandranath Rath, who was killed shortly after the Assembly results. Adhikari campaigned extensively for her in the final days, giving the BJP a highly visible organisational presence.

The principal challenge came from Congress candidate Milan Pradhan, who has the backing of Mamata Banerjee's TMC faction. Mamata's original candidate Sanchita Pradhan Dey withdrew, allowing her faction to support Pradhan in an effort to consolidate the anti-BJP vote.

But Mamata's endorsement did not automatically translate into a unified TMC campaign on the ground. Pradhan was also arrested on September 18 in connection with six cases dating back to the 2007 Nandigram land-acquisition agitation and lost crucial campaign time before receiving interim bail. He subsequently mounted an intensive campaign during the final days.

That leaves the central question in Nandigram: Can Mamata's political support translate into a significant transfer of the TMC's voter base to Congress? The 2026 numbers show why it matters. BJP polled 127,301 votes against TMC's 117,636, while Congress was far behind. Ground reports indicated a stronger visible BJP campaign, while TMC's local organisational presence appeared less prominent despite Mamata's backing.

The TMC split adds another complication. The rival faction led by Ritabrata Banerjee contested as the Democratic Trinamool Congress, with Mohammad Eteshamul Haque as its Nandigram candidate and the envelope symbol. Mamata's faction contested under the name Mamata All India Trinamool Congress with the football-player symbol. Votes going to the rival faction could therefore further affect the opposition's arithmetic.

The field also included CPI's Santi Gopal Giri and ISF's Md Sabe Miraj Ali Khan, among others.

Rejinagar presents a different equation. AJUP chief Humayun Kabir won the seat by a huge 58,876 votes in 2026 but vacated it after retaining Nawda. His son Golam Nabi Azad is contesting for AJUP. Kabir largely stayed away from active campaigning, alleging harassment of party workers, with arrests becoming a major campaign issue.

The BJP has fielded Shankharavh Sarkar, while Mamata's faction has nominated former MLA Rabiul Alam Chowdhury. The Democratic Trinamool Congress has fielded Safiuzzaman Sheikh, with Congress and CPI(M) also in the contest.

With campaigning over, the focus is now on turnout and vote transfer. The October 9 results will provide an electoral reading of Adhikari's political hold over Nandigram, AJUP's ability to retain its Rejinagar base and the extent to which the TMC split has altered West Bengal's electoral arithmetic.