Russia’s Shadow War In Europe? Defence Factories Linked To Ukraine Come Under Suspicion

Russia’s alleged shadow war in Europe is drawing fresh scrutiny as a series of fires, explosions and suspected sabotage incidents hit defence facilities linked to Ukraine’s military supply chain. Western intelligence assessments cited in recent reports suggest Moscow’s military intelligence, the GRU, may be increasingly relying on local intermediaries and criminal networks to make attribution harder.

The latest major case involves Milrem Robotics, an Estonian defence technology company whose unmanned ground systems are supplied to Ukraine. A building used by the company in Tallinn was deliberately set on fire on the night of August 14 to 15. Latvia’s State Security Service said three Latvian citizens were detained over the suspected arson and placed in custody. Investigators are examining whether the incident amounted to assistance to a foreign state, while Estonia is also investigating possible Russian involvement. No public evidence has yet conclusively linked Moscow to the attack.

The incident comes amid growing concerns over a wider pattern. In Bulgaria, a fire broke out on August 10 at an EMCO ammunition facility near Belitsa. Authorities are investigating all possible causes, including deliberate action, but have not established sabotage.

Three days later, a major explosion struck the KNDS Ammo Italy ammunition plant in Colleferro near Rome. The blast originated in the powder pressing department after a fire and caused extensive alarm, although no workers were injured. The cause remains under investigation.

Western officials have previously warned that Russia has used hybrid tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage, against countries supporting Ukraine. One reported method involves recruiting individuals through intermediaries, potentially using encrypted messaging and cryptocurrency payments, to keep operations disconnected from Russian intelligence services.

The strategic objective, according to Western assessments, could be to disrupt weapons production, increase the cost of supporting Kyiv and test NATO’s ability to respond to attacks that remain below the threshold of conventional warfare.

That creates a difficult dilemma for NATO. Under Article 5, an armed attack on one member can trigger collective defence, but attribution is crucial. If responsibility remains uncertain, governments face the challenge of responding without escalating a confrontation with Moscow.