Satellite Images Show 70% Of India Under Clear Skies Despite Southwest Monsoon

Fresh satellite imagery has revealed that nearly 70% of India is currently sitting under clear, cloud free skies, despite the southwest monsoon having officially covered the entire country by July 9. The India Meteorological Department , IMD, confirmed that the monsoon reached every part of India one day later than its scheduled date, yet large swathes of central and southern India remain starved of the deep, rain bearing convective clouds typically associated with an active monsoon at this stage of the season.

The IMD's overall rainfall deficit for the country has actually eased to 14% as of July 9, down sharply from 30% at the end of June, but the department has simultaneously warned of a significant reduction in rainfall activity over Maharashtra , Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh from July 9 onwards, and over south peninsular India from July 10. Subdued rainfall is expected to persist over central and south peninsular India for the next six to seven days, even as the monsoon technically blankets the map.

Meteorologists say the disconnect between monsoon coverage and actual rainfall comes down to atmospheric dynamics playing out thousands of kilometres away. An unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation , a slow moving band of wind, cloud and pressure that circles the equator, has failed to push sufficient moisture northward into the Indian landmass. Compounding this, the westerly jet stream has shifted further south than usual, suppressing the upper level easterly jet that normally drives the rising air and thunderstorm activity central to the monsoon's engine.

The IMD has also pointed to El Nino conditions strengthening over the equatorial Pacific Ocean as a key contributing factor, a phenomenon known to weaken monsoon rainfall over India even as sea surface moisture in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal remains abundant. With the Indian Ocean Dipole currently neutral, there is little counterbalance to offset El Nino's dampening effect this season.

The IMD's July outlook has forecast nationwide rainfall staying below 94% of the Long Period Average for the month, with below normal rainfall expected across most of the country except the northwest, northeast and parts of east central India. Above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are also forecast through July, raising concerns over reservoir levels, hydropower generation and agricultural output as the country's most crucial monsoon month unfolds under drier than expected skies.