TMC Revolt Pushes NDA Closer to Rajya Sabha Supermajority as Opposition Ranks Thin

The political tremors caused by the growing rebellion within the Trinamool Congress (TMC) are set to significantly alter the balance of power in Parliament, strengthening the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in its pursuit of a crucial two-thirds majority needed to push through constitutional amendments.

While the ruling alliance appears to be edging closer to that landmark figure in the Rajya Sabha , the road remains considerably more challenging in the Lok Sabha , where the numbers still fall well short of the threshold required for a constitutional supermajority.

According to sources, the ongoing round of Rajya Sabha elections is expected to further improve the NDA's position. From its current strength of 148 members in the Upper House , the alliance is likely to gain three additional seats by securing independent-backed victories in Jharkhand and Mizoram .

The biggest boost, however, is expected to come from the unfolding crisis within the TMC. Following the resignation of three party MPs, the NDA is poised to win all three vacant Rajya Sabha seats from West Bengal in the ensuing bypolls. This would raise the alliance's tally to 154 members , bringing it within striking distance of the 163-seat mark required for a two-thirds majority in the 245-member House.

Political observers believe the numbers could shift even further if additional TMC lawmakers decide to quit the party. With speculation growing over more resignations, the NDA's leadership is increasingly hopeful of crossing the critical threshold that would provide the parliamentary strength needed to comfortably pass constitutional amendment bills.

However, the Upper House equation remains fluid. By November, the NDA could face fresh challenges when 10 Rajya Sabha members from Uttar Pradesh complete their terms. Given the strengthened position of the Samajwadi Party in the state assembly, the opposition party could secure additional seats and partially offset the NDA's recent gains.

The broader opposition landscape has also undergone significant changes. The INDIA bloc , once projected as a united anti-BJP front, has seen its numerical strength weaken Following the distancing of parties such as the DMK and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), whose Rajya Sabha strength has fallen to just three after recent defections, the INDIA bloc currently commands around 64 members in the Upper House.

Several regional parties continue to hold the balance in closely contested legislative battles. The YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) , along with smaller regional players, retain the flexibility to support either side depending on the issue at hand, making them potentially influential in future parliamentary contests.

In the Lok Sabha, meanwhile, the NDA's prospects remain more constrained despite the apparent political gains from the TMC split. Sources indicate that nearly 20 TMC MPs are preparing to form a separate parliamentary group and extend support to the ruling alliance. The rebel lawmakers are expected to meet Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Monday to formally communicate their separation from the TMC.

Even with their support, the NDA's strength in the Lower House is projected to rise only to around 213 members , far below the 363 seats required for a two-thirds majority in the 543-member chamber.

The developments underline how the deepening turmoil within the TMC is increasingly influencing national politics. While the NDA appears closer than ever to securing decisive strength in the Rajya Sabha, achieving a similar dominance in the Lok Sabha remains a far more distant objective. For now, the battle over parliamentary arithmetic continues to shape the country's political landscape as both the ruling alliance and the opposition prepare for the next phase of political realignment.