Trump Ready To End Iran War Without Nuclear Deal While Russia, China Ramp Up Missile Production

Donald Trump may have missed the Nobel Peace Prize, but he now appears to be competing for another title: a Guinness World Record for declaring victory. Keeping count of how many times Trump has announced that America won the Iran war now requires a calculator, spreadsheet and perhaps a support crew. “And the leaders are all there. So I think we won. We’re the winner. We won!” Trump has repeatedly presented the conflict as an American triumph. At one point, he even repeated “Iran” 95 times while claiming the US had destroyed the country.

There was no unconditional surrender and no final settlement on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran still has missile capabilities and regional influence, while the nuclear question remains unresolved.

Now comes the awkward part. A Wall Street Journal report says Trump is prepared to end the Iran war without a nuclear agreement if Tehran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. That is significant because Iran’s nuclear programme was one of the main issues behind the US campaign. Hormuz carries roughly one fifth of global oil and gas shipments. If it reopens, Trump can potentially call that another American victory.

Trump himself appeared to signal a softer approach, telling Axios, “We’re low-keying it” and describing the situation as “semi-negotiating” with Iran. That sounds rather different from the earlier threats of devastating strikes and demands for surrender.

Iran, meanwhile, does not sound like a defeated country. Tehran has demanded an end to the US blockade, withdrawal of American forces, compensation for war damage, sanctions relief and the release of Iranian assets held abroad. Iran has also rejected claims that direct negotiations with Washington are taking place, saying communications are happening through intermediaries.

So who is actually setting the terms? Trump says America won, while Iran is still presenting conditions for reopening one of the world's most important energy routes. That sounds less like a winner dictating terms and more like both sides lowering the bar and calling it a finish line.

Trump has argued that Iran’s economy is collapsing under inflation and pressure and that Washington can simply wait it out. But economic pain does not automatically remove Tehran’s bargaining power. And the repeated victory claims have another advantage.

But the bigger problem is America’s weapons stockpile. Reuters reported that the US has used virtually all of its long-range ATACMS and Precision Strike Missile stockpiles during the war. Patriot interceptors, THAAD systems and Tomahawks have also been heavily used. Estimates have put Patriot usage around 65% and THAAD depletion at roughly 38%, although exact figures vary.

Replacing those weapons will take years. The Trump administration is expanding defence production, with Trump saying companies are building more plants for Patriots, Tomahawks and other weapons. But factories, workers and supply chains cannot be created overnight.

And then there is the strategic cost. As Iran struck US bases across West Asia, Washington repositioned troops and air-defence systems. Patriot and THAAD systems were moved from Europe, South Korea, Japan and other deployments toward the Middle East.

Russia and China were watching. It is reported that Moscow is tracking American troop movements, weapons consumption and replenishment rates while continuing its own missile production. Ukrainian intelligence says Russia is producing dozens of ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles each month, including Iskander, Kalibr, Kinzhal and Zircon systems.

China is also expanding production of long-range drones, ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Some reports claim Beijing can manufacture certain weapons five or six times faster than the US, although the figure varies by weapon and methodology. The broader trend is clear: America is consuming advanced weapons while Russia and China are expanding production.