Ukraine’s Drone Advantage Hit by Critical Shortage of Combat-Ready Troops

Ukraine’s advances in drone warfare have given its forces new battlefield capabilities against Russia, but a critical shortage of combat-ready troops is limiting Kyiv’s ability to turn those gains into sustained operations as the war enters its fifth year.

Ukraine has faced a manpower disadvantage throughout the conflict. Now, some frontline units are operating at roughly half their intended strength, while exhausted troops are serving longer without adequate rotation, commanders and military analysts say.

“Based on the equipment and the number of people we have today, we barely have enough to hold the sector we currently have,” said a deputy commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion, identified only as Afer, which operates around Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. He said any advance would likely bring heavier losses.

The shortage is also restricting Ukraine’s ability to exploit openings on the battlefield. Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Institute said Kyiv needs reserves that can be deployed without weakening other parts of the roughly 1,250-kilometre frontline. Without them, units cannot rotate often enough, leading to exhaustion and higher casualties.

Ukraine’s mobilisation problems include draft evasion and desertions. Former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in March that around 2 million Ukrainian men were evading service, while about 200,000 soldiers had deserted or left their units without authorisation.

The government is seeking to address the crisis through changes to mobilisation, training, military organisation and contracts. Fedorov had also proposed reorganising the army around fewer but stronger units and making infantry service more attractive through higher salaries and fixed terms.

Ukraine has an estimated population of 39 million, with about 6.8 million men aged 25-59, according to UN figures cited by Ukraine’s National Health System. More than 70,000 women were serving in the army as of January 2025.

Despite the shortage, Ukraine can still conduct limited offensives. Kyiv says Russian forces have occupied about 990 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2026, while Ukrainian forces have retaken around 820 square kilometres.

Military analysts say such local gains have not fundamentally changed the broader battlefield balance. Ukraine’s drone advantage can help compensate for some manpower gaps, but exhausted units and limited reserves continue to constrain its ability to launch larger operations.