US Weakens Iran’s Grip On Strait Of Hormuz, But Costly War Is Far From Over

The United States has weakened Iran’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz and virtually halted Tehran’s oil exports, but a war that was expected to last only weeks is showing no clear signs of ending.

The conflict launched by the US and Israel in February has settled into a costly stalemate. A diplomatic agreement reached in June quickly collapsed, with little progress since then. Fighting continues at a lower intensity, while Washington has yet to present a clear exit strategy.

Iran initially used the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas normally passes, to pressure the global economy. At the same time, Tehran continued exporting its own oil, mainly to China.

That advantage has now sharply declined. According to oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler, Iran’s oil exports fell from 1.85 million barrels a day last spring to around 255,000 barrels a day in August. Meanwhile, non-Iranian oil shipments have recovered, reaching about 10.8 million barrels a day through the strait and alternative routes.

However, keeping those supplies moving has required a major US military deployment, adding to the cost of the conflict. The war has already cost American taxpayers more than $37.5 billion and killed 18 US service members.

Economic pressure has also intensified inside Iran, with rising prices and longer queues at petrol stations. Yet Tehran has shown no willingness to make major concessions over Hormuz, its nuclear programme or its support for regional armed groups.

The conflict has also spread. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting oil facilities and shipping. Their actions have disrupted traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb, another critical energy and trade route.

The pressure is also being felt globally. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel this week, while diesel prices reached a record high, raising concerns about inflation.

Analysts warn that Iran could respond to mounting pressure with further military escalation, leaving the conflict without a clear victor and increasing the risk of a wider regional crisis.