WHO Warns Congo’s Ebola Outbreak Could Surpass Deadliest Outbreak In History

The Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo is accelerating at a pace that has alarmed the World Health Organisation, with WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warning that it could eventually surpass the 2014–16 West African epidemic, which killed more than 11,000 people.

The warning does not mean Congo has already recorded the deadliest outbreak. The current epidemic has caused more than 2,000 deaths among over 4,300 confirmed cases, but WHO says its concern stems from the speed at which infections and deaths are increasing. The first 1,000 deaths took about nine weeks, while the next 1,000 were recorded in roughly three weeks, according to reports citing WHO.

The outbreak, caused by the rare Bundibugyo virus, was officially declared on May 15, although genetic analysis indicates it had been circulating since February. Unlike previous major Ebola outbreaks, there is no approved vaccine or specific treatment for this virus, leaving containment heavily dependent on early detection, isolation and supportive care.

The crisis is unfolding in conflict-affected eastern Congo, near South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda, where poor infrastructure, insecurity and ill-equipped health centres are making access difficult. WHO and Africa CDC say the response is struggling to keep pace. Contact follow-up was around 75%, below the 95% operational target, while misinformation and distrust are discouraging some people from seeking care.

The response has also been weakened by health workers protesting over unpaid salaries and risk allowances. This comes as frontline personnel themselves face serious danger: WHO has reported healthcare workers among those infected and killed.

Still, the international response is expanding. WHO has listed the first molecular diagnostic test specifically for Bundibugyo virus for emergency use, while the PARTNERS clinical trial is testing potential treatments. Researchers are also studying whether the licensed Ervebo vaccine could provide protection against Bundibugyo, though it is not an approved vaccine for this virus.

The outbreak has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, while Africa CDC has also activated its continental emergency mechanisms.

WHO's emergency chief Dr Abdirahman Mahamud expects the Congo outbreak to peak within about six months under a moderate scenario, but warned that a more severe scenario could keep transmission going for nine to 12 months.